Thread: Forecast for 2012

Its that time of the year to figure out what we are going to do next year. My philosophy has always been that unless there is a goal to strive for, its too easy to park yourself at the computer playing Battlefield 3 or watching the Speed Channel.



My question to the board is what is your forecast for growth for next year as a percentage? -5% or less +5% +10% or more?

//Rick

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Originally Posted by Rick Bunzel

Its that time of the year to figure out what we are going to do next year. My philosophy has always been that unless there is a goal to strive for, its too easy to park yourself at the computer playing Battlefield 3 or watching the Speed Channel.



My question to the board is what is your forecast for growth for next year as a percentage? -5% or less +5% +10% or more?

//Rick

It's not looking good for new home , 1 yr warranty, inspections in AZ. I got the list of new built homes in my area the other day.
Last year,[ new homes that closed,] the list was apx 3600 for the year,
this year Jan thru Nov. the total that closed was 2232.

Four and five years ago the same list was apx 15,000 new homes for the year.

Originally Posted by Rick Bunzel

Its that time of the year to figure out what we are going to do next year. My philosophy has always been that unless there is a goal to strive for, its too easy to park yourself at the computer playing Battlefield 3 or watching the Speed Channel.



My question to the board is what is your forecast for growth for next year as a percentage? -5% or less +5% +10% or more?

//Rick

Being that I'm diversified in the types of inspections and related work this is what I have down for my 2012 goals. My wife and I sat down the other night and reviewed this year and this is what we are shooting for:

10% increase in the number of basic home inspections.
20% increase in Air Check air testing (Prism Labs).
15% increase in radon testing.
5% increase in commercial draw inspections.
5% increase in residential jumbo loan draw inspections.
Flat or even on residential regular loan draws.
5% increase in HUD/VA compliance inspections.
90% decrease in 203k consulting(this won't be difficult!).
10% increase in litigation work.

As for profit for 2012 I will be looking at an increase in the 15% to 18% range over 2011 if everything goes as I think it will.

For 2011 I've had a 28.7% increase in inspections over last year. Since I worked for a national company most of last year I've also shown a little over 120% increase in income (before expenses).

For 2012, I'm looking at increasing my fee approximately 10%, with about a 10% growth over 2011. This should increase my income by about $16,000.

I keep seeing home inspection equipment for sale on craigslist and ebay so my feeling is there are quite a few inspectors out there giving up. Those of us with a good referral base will continue to grow.

Originally Posted by Rick Bunzel

Its that time of the year to figure out what we are going to do next year. My philosophy has always been that unless there is a goal to strive for, its too easy to park yourself at the computer playing Battlefield 3 or watching the Speed Channel.



My question to the board is what is your forecast for growth for next year as a percentage? -5% or less +5% +10% or more?

//Rick

My philosophy was the same as that of trees ... they will grow as high as they can ... and I would do as much as I could - that was always my goal, and it worked for me.

My goal for 2012 is to earn enough for gas money and Captn Morgan. Everything after that is gravy.

OK, kidding aside, I set no goals. It may come from my previous life in the corporate world and the way I came to loathe company mandated goals. I just want to stay steady with work and keep building up my referral base. I did just earn another Angie's List Super Service award for 2011 to go along with my 2010 AL award so I would like to keep that going and get another one for 2012. As long as I do my job and keep doing what I'm doing, it should come to me.

Originally Posted by Jerry Peck

My philosophy was the same as that of trees ... they will grow as high as they can ... and I would do as much as I could - that was always my goal, and it worked for me.

Yea, but don't trees have a life span?

Originally Posted by Marc M

Yea, but don't trees have a life span?

Don't you and I?

Originally Posted by Jerry Peck

Don't you and I?

You bet...Everything eventually comes to an end.

Work less - make more.

Originally Posted by Jerry Peck

My philosophy was the same as that of trees ... they will grow as high as they can ... and I would do as much as I could - that was always my goal, and it worked for me.

Mark this post gentlemen..... it's one in his 15,000 that someone asks for specifics and the answer is general For some reason I'm use to it being the other way around.

To a large extent I agree with it, though. All the planning in the world (at least in this business) is just a guess. Especially in today's real estate climate.

For me, this year ended on a very nice note.... we've been super busy through Oct/Nov and so far in Dec. We'll likely finish this year about 10-12% above last year. I'm hoping for about the same for 2012.

There are major regional differences amongst us but I'm willing to go out on a limb and say the worst of the market is behind us. Of course, things are still very volitale and we're only a natural disaster or terrorist attack away from another slump. But, at least in my neck of the woods, things are looking up.

If you've been in this for the last 5 years or so and are still filling the fridge with food give yourself a pat on the back.

I have a set of goals but I chose not to post them at this time. I usually do not try and let a present market deter what I try to put forth for my goals but I am not sure if that will work in the environment we are in.

I am having a very difficult time trying to figure what is going to happen when some day the banks just have to finally try and dump as many properties as they can for what ever they can get for them.

In one regard I believe that buying right now or in the near future is the absolute best thing anyone can do for their longer term financial gain. 3600 sf homes almost new inside and out with better amenities than most builders would think of putting in homes and these homes in nice neighborhoods are selling for 130,000 to 150. And this is with out a bank dump of their multitude of properties.

That in itself will be huge in the coming year but then I slide back a bit and look at what it may do to the economy in whole. That keeps me changing projections.

Who knows. I have a good outlook on things picking up in the year ahead. I do believe thinks will slowly start to get to even levels. I still have this thing about the outright marketing to Realtors on any level. I do to a point but nothing as such as a marketing plan to them. In that sense I will not do as well as my Inspector friends that do but I do believe it will be a steady climb.

One other item that is a bit bothersome is the percentage of sold homes to the percentage of foreclosed homes. It is still way up there (the amount of foreclosed homes). That in itself will keep the economy to a slower growth than what we need.

Originally Posted by Ken Rowe

For 2011 I've had a 28.7% increase in inspections over last year. Since I worked for a national company most of last year I've also shown a little over 120% increase in income (before expenses).

For 2012, I'm looking at increasing my fee approximately 10%, with about a 10% growth over 2011. This should increase my income by about $16,000.

I keep seeing home inspection equipment for sale on craigslist and ebay so my feeling is there are quite a few inspectors out there giving up. Those of us with a good referral base will continue to grow.

Well, 2012 results are in:

16 % increase in number of inspections
15.5% increase in revenues

We were up about 23% for 2012 vs. 2011. That's doing about 90% standard inspections, 5% Pest only and 5% commercial or multi-family.

Needless to say I'm pleased.... but still hopeful to see an increase for 2013. We're still down about 30% from out best year of 2007

Angels laugh at the plans of men........

oh wait......

It's wives who laugh at the plans of men........nevermind......

so far every year is better then the last--pleased with that and i,m still alive to enjoy more.go 2013