Thread: Read This When You Have Time

The Next Slum?

Aaron

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Sort of reminds me of the old song, "When the war breaks out in Mexico I'm heading for Montreal."

Interesting read.... I think 80% of it is BS. One of the cities they mention, Portland, Oregon, is where I live and their data must have been pulled from a lotto ticket. The same house in no way goes for 40 to 200% more in the city vs. suburbs. At least not in the drastic context they are speaking of.

Sure, take a house in a crappy suburb versus one in an upscale urban neighborhood and that might somewhat pencil out. The obvious flip side is the inner city slum house vs. the upscale suburb.

With all due respect to the professor and author, if housing trends could be predicted using these methods we'd all be rich. Kind of like gambling schemes in Vegas.

I'm not saying the whole article is incorrect. There are some truths and logic. I just don't believe that a professor armed with a couple pieces of data can predict the demise of the suburb in America.

I'd like to invite him to one of my son's baseball games on a Saturday afternoon. The suburb is going nowhere anytime soon.

Not to relish in anyone's misery but the part about the HOA president citing crime statistics made me chuckle. I'll bet she longs for the days when a 'bad day' was too many trash cans left curbside after 5pm.

Oh well, I guess I'll just wait for a few years until I can pick up a nice hollow core door McMansion for $20 bucks a square foot.... maybe I'll look up the professor and invite him over for a spam burger.

I think 80% of it is BS.

Matt:

Perhaps the statistics for you hometown don't match your expectations. Those stated for the Dallas area are right on target. Regardless, I have read similar articles over the past several years based on research done by various reputable organizations.

I've been watching this happen for a very long time where I live. Before you nay say the man's work you might want to bone up on several books in the fields of urban planning and cultural criticism. The trends in this country might just surprise you.

Aaron

Sorry, maybe 80% was too high.... The only piece of data in there I can relate to is my area and it's just not true. So, maybe I jumped to a conclusion.

This housing market is in a crazy time right now.... I guess I just get annoyed with all of the 'sky is falling' crowd.

Like I said, good article anyhow.... I didn't mean any negativity in your direction

This housing market is in a crazy time right now.... I guess I just get annoyed with all of the 'sky is falling' crowd.

Matt:

Agreed. But, after all, that is what the news is for: to keep the sky is falling crowd all hot and bothered about trivial or non-existant bullshit so that they do not actually see what is going on around them . . . bah, bah, bah, bah . . .

Aaron

I have to agree with the article. I've seen many of it's positions develop here over the last 5-10 years.
Setting aside the subprime BS for now, because it isn't adequately discussed most of the time anyway, (in my opinion).
One of the major trends around here has been the export of urban gangs and normally less financially stable people to the suburbs and outlying new developments.
As urban neighborhoods have gentrified, developers have come in and paid large prices to usually poorer people for their properties. These folks wanting the american dream just like anyone else take the large cash out and move to sleepy suburbs or outlying new developments that they normally could not afford.
Unfortunately, as I have seen on the street level, many of these areas are not prepared for this new demographic and the potential problems. Neighborhoods and sleepy suburbs that once had minimal problems are now faced with daily urban issues.
The trend exists and will most likely continue for a while. Urban areas are on a rebound. Drive time from the burbs to city jobs, urban renewal and travel costs have been some of the factors around here.